Karolina Muchova has completed the eight-woman lineup for the 2026 WTA Finals.
When Marta Kostyuk retired from her second-round match at the Ningbo Open, Muchova qualified for the WTA Finals for the first time in her professional career.
The Czech star will join Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Elina Svitolina, and Linda Noskova in Indian Wells, California, next month.
But who will win the title? Data suggests one woman is the favourite to win the 2026 WTA Finals, and it isn’t who you may think…
Data points towards Elina Svitolina winning the 2026 WTA Finals
Of the eight women competing in this year’s WTA Finals, three are making their debuts: Andreeva, Muchova, and Noskova. Among the five players who have played the event before, one has performed far better than the others.
Ukrainian star Svitolina is a former WTA Finals winner, lifting the trophy in Singapore eight years ago. She has a better record than Rybakina (64%), Sabalenka (57%), Gauff (47%), and Pegula (43%), having won 77% of her matches at the event.
2026 WTA Finals field
| Seed | Player | WTA Finals best performance | WTA Finals record |
| 1 | Elena Rybakina | Champion – 2025 | 7-4 (64%) |
| 2 | Aryna Sabalenka | Final – 2022, 2025 | 12-9 (57%) |
| 3 | Mirra Andreeva | – | – |
| 4 | Jessica Pegula | Final – 2023 | 6-8 (43%) |
| 5 | Coco Gauff | Champion – 2024 | 7-8 (47%) |
| 6 | Elina Svitolina | Champion – 2018 | 10-3 (77%) |
| 7 | Karolina Muchova | – | – |
| 8 | Linda Noskova | – | – |
She is also expected to begin the event as the sixth seed, another good omen. Since 2000, the sixth seed has produced more WTA Finals winners than any other seed (level with the top seed).
WTA Finals winners since 2000 by seed
- 1st seed – 6 (Martina Hingis – 2000, Kim Clijsters – 2003, Justine Henin – 2007, Serena Williams – 2013, Serena Williams – 2014, Ashleigh Barty – 2019)
- 6th seed – 6 (Maria Sharapova – 2004, Caroline Wozniacki – 2017, Elina Svitolina – 2018, Garbine Muguruza – 2021, Caroline Garcia – 2022, Elena Rybakina – 2025)
- 3rd seed – 5 (Justine Henin – 2006, Kim Clijsters – 2010, Petra Kvitova – 2011, Serena Williams – 2012, Coco Gauff – 2024)
- 7th seed – 3 (Serena Williams – 2001, Venus Williams – 2008, Dominika Cibulkova – 2016)
- 2nd seed – 2 (Serena Williams – 2009, Iga Swiatek – 2023)
- 5th seed – 2 (Kim Clijsters – 2002, Agnieszka Radwanska – 2015)
- 4th seed – 1 (Amelie Mauresmo – 2005)
- 8th seed – 0
Maria Sharapova, Caroline Wozniacki, Svitolina herself, Garbine Muguruza, Caroline Garcia, and Rybakina have all won the year-end championships while competing as the sixth seed.
That certainly bodes well for the 32-year-old who is set to make her first WTA Finals appearance in seven years next month. Svitolina dropped down the rankings after giving birth to her daughter and only returned to the top 10 this year, reaching a Grand Slam semi-final in Melbourne before winning the Italian Open.
Svitolina is playing some of the best tennis of her career and could well challenge for the title, although it wouldn’t be right to discuss her chances without at least mentioning the statement she released earlier this week.
Tennis power couple Svitolina and Gael Monfils are separating. The Ukrainian received a wave of unwarranted social media abuse after the news broke, and it’s impossible to know how she is dealing with the situation.
Winning one of the sport’s biggest titles in a stacked field, with what’s going on behind the scenes, would take a monumental effort. But if anyone can do it, it’s Svitolina.
How did Elina Svitolina win the 2018 WTA Finals?
Eight years ago, Svitolina was placed in the ‘White group’ at the WTA Finals, alongside Karolina Pliskova, Caroline Wozniacki, and Petra Kvitova. Svitolina went unbeaten in the group, defeating Kvitova, 6-3, 6-3, Pliskova, 6-3, 2-6, 6-3, and Wozniacki, 5-7, 7-5, 6-3.
2018 WTA Finals – White group
| Standings | Player | Match (W-L) | Set (W-L) | Game (W-L) |
| 1 | Elina Svitolina | 3-0 | 6-2 (75%) | 44-33 (57.1%) |
| 2 | Karolina Pliskova | 2-1 | 5-2 (71.4%) | 36-27 (57.1%) |
| 3 | Caroline Wozniacki | 1-2 | 3-5 (37.5%) | 37-43 (46.2%) |
| 4 | Petra Kvitova | 0-3 | 1-6 (14.2%) | 26-40 (39.3%) |
She advanced to the semi-finals with Pliskova, while Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens advanced from the ‘Red Group’. Svitolina met the eighth seed, Bertens, in the semis and reached the final following a hard-fought 7-5, 6-7, 6-4 win.
Standing between Svitolina and the WTA Finals crown was Stephens, the 2017 US Open champion. Svitolina dropped the opening set, 3-6, but battled back to win 2-6, 6-2, 6-2, clinching the biggest title of her professional career.
Only time will tell if she can double her WTA Finals tally in 2026. This year’s WTA Finals will begin on Saturday, November 6, in Indian Wells.
