Kimi Antonelli will become more than just Formula 1’s youngest-ever world champion if, as looks near-certain, he clinches the 2026 title at the Mexican Grand Prix later today.
The 20-year-old needs just two more points, equivalent to a single ninth place, from the remaining races to be champion, while remaining mathematical rivals George Russell and Lewis Hamilton effectively need to win all of the rest of this season’s races.
Antonelli’s campaign already stands out statistically against past first-time title winners.
He’ll be the 36th F1 world champion, but should be in a minority in that 20 of those clinched their first title in a final-race decider. Antonelli, by comparison, is cruising to the title and set to clinch it after 19 rounds. That will be with 82.6% of the season completed, by that metric the fifth-fastest of the first-time title-winners. He retains that position even if this season drops to 22 rounds, regardless of how you adjust the calculation.
Those ahead are led by Nigel Mansell, who finally won his only championship at the age of 39 in 1992 and sealed it with just 68.8% of the season gone. However, he was a veteran of title fights stretching back to 1986. Jim Clark (70% of the season in 1963) and Jackie Stewart (72.5% of the 1969 season) are next up.
The only other driver who won faster than Antonelli looks set to was Alberto Ascari (75% of the 1952 season) when the world championship was run for Formula 2 machinery.
Antonelli is poised to be one of only three drivers in the last 30 years who have sealed their first titles before the last round. That will put him in the illustrious company of Fernando Alonso (89.5% of the season in 2005) and Jenson Button (94.1% of the 2009 season).
All of these championships were won in different machinery against different levels of opposition, but Antonelli’s also stands out as something of a walkover. Even among the 16 first-time title wins that didn’t go down to the last round, some were genuine title fights that went deep into the season before swinging in one driver’s favour.
For example, Alain Prost’s 1985 championship for McLaren was sealed with two races to spare but Ferrari’s Michele Alboreto was right there with him before failing to score in the final five races. Alan Jones (1980), Button and Ayrton Senna (1988) and Alonso were all part of genuine battles.
And while you can argue the dominance of Mercedes played a big part in this, Russell’s performances in the second car show that it might have looked like a profoundly different season without Antonelli’s brilliance.
