No one knows whether Canelo Alvarez can still beat an elite pressure fighter. At 36, he hasn’t faced an opponent who combines high-level ability with the sustained attacking style Christian Mbilli is expected to bring.
Their October 31 fight will test whether Alvarez can still use his counterpunching and power to slow down an opponent who keeps coming. Mbilli, the WBC super middleweight champion, will try to make Canelo fight at a pace he hasn’t faced in years.
Some believe Mbilli is made for Canelo because he can plant his feet and counter the WBC champion. But that view is based on what a younger Canelo did against fighters who weren’t at the elite level. Trying to do that now at 36 against one of the best pressure fighters he has faced in over a decade it going to be difficult.
11 years ago, James Kirkland tried to take the fight to Canelo in 2015 and was knocked out in the third round. Kirkland was not elite or anywhere close to that. Journeyman Alfredo Angulo also came forward in 2014, but he was too slow to avoid punishment and was stopped in the tenth. Those were impressive wins for Alvarez, yet neither tells us how he will handle Mbilli more than a decade later.
Those fights showed that Canelo can beat lower-level pressure fighters, but it doesn’t say anything about what he can do against an elite-level fighter. He’s also a lot older now, and nowhere near the youth he had when he fought those guys.
Gennadiy Golovkin was a much higher-level opponent, but his approach was different from Mbilli’s. In their first fight in 2017, the 35-year-old Golovkin worked behind his jab and picked his moments to throw hard punches. Many fans thought he deserved the victory, although the judges scored the fight a draw. In the rematch, Golovkin was 36 and spent much of the contest boxing rather than applying nonstop pressure.
Miguel Cotto chose to box Canelo, working behind his jab rather than trying to overwhelm him. Dmitry Bivol chose to move in and out and land combinations to beat Canelo.
Berlanga finally put it on Canelo late in their 2024 fight and had some success. The trouble was that he’d spent too much of the fight waiting and had already fallen behind.
Mbilli won’t likely give Canelo that kind of time. When Alvarez gets tired, his output drops, his face turns red, and he starts taking more punches. He’ll have chances to counter Mbilli, but what happens if the champion walks through those shots and keeps throwing? That’s something the 36-year-old Canelo hasn’t had to deal with in a long time.
