At times, it’s easy to take for granted how lucky tennis had it with the Big Three.
After all, it’s actually ludicrous to consider how blessed the sport was, with three generational superhuman athletes all co-existing during the same period.
Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic won a combined 66 Grand Slam titles, and that barely scratches the surface of their accolades.
However, what made them so compelling was how unique they all were, in terms of their personalities and their play styles.
Naturally, all three leaned heavily on their forehands, and debate rages on over who had the best of the trio.
Delving through the data, one standout does emerge.
Data proves that Rafael Nadal had the best forehand out of the Big Three
Whilst his one-handed backhand was a thing of beauty, it was an area of Federer’s game that his rivals sought to exploit.
Because of this, his forehand was by far his biggest weapon, and he would routinely run around the backhand, safe in the knowledge that his forehand was big enough to win points from anywhere on the court.
Nadal, meanwhile, hit a vicious left-handed forehand with incredible spin, which made him a multi-surface threat, and unstoppable on clay.
Novak Djokovic perhaps boasts one of the more underrated forehands in tennis history, precisely because of this competition, and because the rest of his game was so well-rounded.
However, it is the Spaniard who tops a handful of crucial metrics to set him apart from his great rivals.
| – | Federer | Nadal | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forehand potency (points per match) | +10.0 | +15.3 | +11.3 |
| Forehand spin (revolutions per second) | 47 | 55 | 45 |
| Forehand vs backhand gap | 10.2 | 13.7 | 8.8 |
Jeff Sackmann of Tennis Abstract built a stat called Forehand Potency, which roughly measured how many points a player’s forehand wins him per match, giving credit for winners, forced errors and the shots that set them up.
On a per-match basis, Nadal came out with +15.3, higher than Djokovic’s +11.3, and Federer’s +10.0.
Unsurprisingly, the spin also favours the 22-time major champion, as Federer’s topspin forehand averaged about 47 revolutions per second, below Nadal’s 55 but above Djokovic’s 45.
In their head-to-head match-ups, this shot proved pivotal as well.
In arguably the greatest tennis rivalry in the history of the men’s game, Nadal hit a higher percentage of forehands than Federer in 25 of their 35 matches.
Federer normally sliced about 37% of his backhands, but against his great rival he managed only around 20%. The power of Nadal’s forehand took away one of Federer’s favourite tools.
Another example came at Wimbledon in 2011. Both Nadal and Djokovic reached the final. Over the tournament, Nadal hit 113 forehand winners to Djokovic’s 62, with fewer forehand unforced errors (35 to 46). That being said, the Serbian did go on to win that match.
Whilst it’s easy to find any statistic to fit a narrative such as this, the Forehand Potency chart really does help Nadal’s case.
Regardless, all three definitely have a case for the greatest forehand of all time, and who tops the list out of these three feels like personal preference.
It could all be rendered pointless if Carlos Alcaraz carries on the way he is…
Elsewhere, it was proclaimed that Federer had the best serve of the Big Three, again using data to compare the trio.
