The winner of the Tim Tszyu vs. Erislandy Lara fight could face the winner of Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Keith Thurman in the first quarter of 2027, according to Chris Mannix. Tszyu will challenge Lara for the WBA middleweight title on December 12 in Australia.
The target is the first quarter of 2027. Both December fights have to play out, and the winners would still have to make a deal.
Boxing executives love mapping out tournament brackets on paper, but they constantly ignore whether the American public actually cares enough to buy the final product.
Neither Ortiz Jr. nor Tszyu has established real pay-per-view drawing power in the United States. Tszyu sells tickets in Australia, but putting him behind a stateside paywall has always yielded modest numbers. Ortiz produces exciting scraps, yet his profile remains largely confined to hardcore followers rather than mainstream sports fans. Expecting casual buyers to drop $60 to $80 on DAZN PPV for Ortiz against Tszyu was already a massive stretch.
If the upsets hit, the whole concept falls off a cliff.
Keith Thurman has fought only once in nearly five years, and Erislandy Lara turns 44 next spring. A Lara-Thurman clash in 2027 belongs in a time capsule from 2017, not on a premium pay-per-view platform. Lara’s safety-first, counter-punching style has always been poison for commercial metrics, while Thurman’s long stretches of inactivity killed off whatever casual fanbase he once commanded.
Building an expensive pay-per-view model around two fights that could easily produce Lara vs. Thurman is promotional Russian roulette. If the favorites slip, the networks are left holding the bag on an unsellable relic.
Lara can make Tszyu look bad by taking half a step back and catching him with the straight left when he reaches. Tszyu will have to cut off the ring and make Lara work after he lands, because following him around gives the champion time to pick his shots and get out. At 43, how often can Lara do that if Tszyu keeps making him move? That’s the part of this fight Tszyu can exploit.
Against Ortiz, Tszyu could find himself doing the moving. Ortiz can get close behind his jab and go to the body when an opponent covers up. Tszyu likes to plant his feet to get power on his right hand, and Ortiz would give him chances to throw it. The cost is what comes back if Tszyu stays in front of him after he lets it go. He could land the cleaner shot and still spend the rest of the round trying to get off the ropes.
Thurman can spoil that pairing, and Lara can make the whole discussion academic for Tszyu. But if Tszyu wins in December and Ortiz is next, he could have only a few months to prepare for a man who will make him fight for the same ground Lara is willing to give up.
