Alexander Zverev will play Alex de Minaur in the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals.
The top seed is the favourite to beat De Minaur and to take the title in Shanghai, after several of his biggest rivals suffered early exits. Carlos Alcaraz lost to Zizou Bergs in the third round, and Novak Djokovic lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the second round.
Djokovic may have lost early in Shanghai, but he might still be keeping an eye on the tournament. The Serb could do with Zverev beating De Minaur in the quarter-finals…
Alexander Zverev beating Alex de Minaur would boost Novak Djokovic’s ATP Finals chances
Earlier in the Asian Swing, Djokovic confirmed his plans to play the ATP Finals in Turin if he qualifies. The record seven-time champion qualified in 2024 and 2025, but skipped the event.
How long do you think Alexander Zverev keeps the number one ranking?
He is now guaranteed to be year end number one after Carlos Alcaraz’s shock loss in Shanghai…
“At the moment, I’m also not really qualified yet for the race for Turin. I mean, this year I would like to play if I qualify. I’m planning also to play Paris, Bercy. Shanghai, I still don’t know. I need to see how I feel here, and then I’ll decide,” said Djokovic.
Unfortunately for Djokovic, he currently sits outside the ATP Finals qualification places. Jannik Sinner’s injury opened up an extra spot (9th), which De Minaur occupies. The Aussie is 40 points ahead of Djokovic, but could increase the gap to 240 points with a quarter-final win over Zverev and to 840 points with a title in Shanghai.
Live ATP Race to Turin
| Rank | Player | Country | Points | Status |
| 1 | Alexander Zverev | Germany | 8,950 | Qualified |
| 2 | Jannik Sinner | Italy | 7,950 | Won’t play |
| 3 | Carlos Alcaraz | Spain | 4,600 | Qualified |
| 4 | Ben Shelton | USA | 4,480 | Qualified |
| 5 | Flavio Cobolli | Italy | 3,540 | Currently qualifying |
| 6 | Frances Tiafoe | USA | 3,380 | Currently qualifying |
| 7 | Arthur Fils | France | 3,325 | Currently qualifying |
| 8 | Daniil Medvedev | Russia | 3,120 | Currently qualifying |
| 9 | Alex de Minaur | Australia | 2,880 | Currently qualifying |
| 10 | Novak Djokovic | Serbia | 2,840 | Not currently qualifying |
| 11 | Rafael Jodar | Spain | 2,709 | Not currently qualifying |
| 12 | Taylor Fritz | USA | 2,530 | Not currently qualifying |
With Zverev already way out of reach, a win for the German over De Minaur would boost Djokovic’s chances of qualifying for the ATP Finals. If the gap stays at 40 points, Djokovic will fancy his chances of jumping back ahead of De Minaur when he returns to action at the Paris Masters next month, even if the Aussie picks up points in Vienna before then.
However, it’s not just De Minaur Djokovic needs to worry about. Spanish youngster Rafael Jodar could overtake him if he wins his quarter-final match in Shanghai. The 20-year-old will play Casper Ruud on Friday, October 16.
There are still 1,000 points up for grabs in Paris, but Djokovic needs other results to start going his way if he is to secure his spot in the year-end championships this November.
Can Alex de Minaur upset Alexander Zverev in Shanghai?
The good news for Djokovic is that Zverev is expected to beat De Minaur in the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals, but does he have anything to worry about?
Looking at De Minaur and Zverev’s head-to-head record, it’s hard to tell. The German leads 8-4, although De Minaur won their last two meetings. However, all four of De Minaur’s wins came in team competitions, defeating Zverev at the ATP Cup, United Cup, and the Laver Cup. Those wins still count and shouldn’t be overlooked, although it’s worth noting that Zverev hasn’t lost to De Minaur in a ‘normal’ ATP or Grand Slam competition.
Alexander Zverev and Alex de Minaur’s head-to-head record (8-4)
| Match | Winner | Loser | Score |
| 2026 Laver Cup | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Zverev | 2-6, 7-6, 11-9 |
| 2025 Laver Cup | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Zverev | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2024 French Open – QF | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 6-4, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 2024 Indian Wells – 4R | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 5-7, 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024 United Cup – SF | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Zverev | 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2022 Italian Open – 3R | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 2021 Vienna Open – 2R | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 6-2, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 2022 ATP Cup – RR | Alex de Minaur | Alexander Zverev | 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 2019 Mexican Open – QF | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2018 Shanghai Masters – 3R | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2018 Washington Open – F | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 2018 Davis Cup – WG | Alexander Zverev | Alex de Minaur | 7-5, 4-6, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
Only time will tell who will emerge victorious in Shanghai, but you won’t want to miss any of the action. Zverev and De Minaur will play their quarter-final match on Thursday, October 15. The winner will advance to meet Arthur Gea or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the semis.
